Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nevada vs. UCLA: O/U 45.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$15.2
43.6¢ → 34.5¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 43.9¢ | $607.6 | $581.19 | -$26.41 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 55¢ | $550 | $545 | +$15 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $145.77 | $142.38 | -$3.39 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 42.6¢ | $70.15 | $68.2 | -$0.57 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42.6¢ | $38.8 | $38.22 | -$1.94 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57¢ | $31.35 | $29.98 | +$1.38 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $15.05 | $14.7 | -$1.05 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $2.62 | $3.27 | +$0.65 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$607.6
Value
$581.19
PnL
-$26.41
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888Invested
$550
Value
$545
PnL
+$15
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$145.77
Value
$142.38
PnL
-$3.39
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$70.15
Value
$68.2
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.05
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$1.05
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$3.27
PnL
+$0.65
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.