Nevada vs. UCLA: O/U 43.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$32.49
49.8¢ → 72.5¢
+46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 51¢ | $476.54 | $439.17 | -$37.38 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $299.33 | $328.23 | +$28.9 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 58.4¢ | $344.53 | $251.77 | -$92.76 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58.4¢ | $287.25 | $194.3 | -$92.95 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60.3¢ | $57.28 | $57.48 | +$0.2 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 42.5¢ | $68 | $100 | +$32 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $83.13 | $86.39 | +$3.26 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $49 | $54.1 | +$5.1 | 52% 4736-4456 (9192) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $7.35 | $7.95 | +$0.6 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
0xheavy888Invested
$476.54
Value
$439.17
PnL
-$37.38
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$299.33
Value
$328.23
PnL
+$28.9
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$344.53
Value
$251.77
PnL
-$92.76
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Both legs:
Invested
$68
Value
$100
PnL
+$32
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$83.13
Value
$86.39
PnL
+$3.26
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$49
Value
$54.1
PnL
+$5.1
Record
52%
4736-4456 (9192)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.6
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.