Spread: UCLA (-24.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (43%) · UCLA at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
UCLA
7
UCLA 43%
$1.8K
$138.32
44.9¢ → 73.5¢
+64% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCLA at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | UCLAavg 43.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$121.38 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
PR primm | UCLAavg 43¢ | $278.92 | $311.35 | +$32.43 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
JU justaluckydude | UCLAavg 69.3¢ | $130.32 | $90.24 | -$40.08 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Nevadaavg 25¢ | $25 | $52 | +$27 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Nevadaavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $15.6 | -$1.5 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Nevadaavg 56¢ | $9.54 | $8.86 | -$0.68 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Nevadaavg 55¢ | $4.16 | $3.94 | -$0.23 | 57% 13877-10647 (24524) |
Invested
$1,218.88
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$121.38
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$278.92
Value
$311.35
PnL
+$32.43
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
Invested
$130.32
Value
$90.24
PnL
-$40.08
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$52
PnL
+$27
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$15.6
PnL
-$1.5
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$8.86
PnL
-$0.68
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
13877-10647 (24524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.