Spread: UCLA (-23.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (100%) · UCLA at 54¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
UCLA
6
UCLA 100%
$3.8K
$42.17
48.2¢ → 54¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCLA at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmm | UCLAavg 48¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$26.04 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
HO HomeRunHazard | UCLAavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.43 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | UCLAavg 53¢ | $56.16 | $65.54 | +$9.38 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | UCLAavg 65.3¢ | $39.2 | $34.5 | -$4.7 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UCLAavg 48¢ | $28.8 | $28.5 | -$0.3 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | UCLAavg 47¢ | $10.03 | $10.35 | +$0.32 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
Invested
$2,499.84
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$26.04
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$1,097
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.43
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$56.16
Value
$65.54
PnL
+$9.38
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$39.2
Value
$34.5
PnL
-$4.7
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.