Spread: UCLA (-22.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (78%) · UCLA at 51¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

UCLA51¢Nevada49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 78%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$280.99

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA51%

Nevada50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,315

Combined PnL+$277.16

Nevada2 traders

Total Value$54.13

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$3.83

UCLA — 78%Nevada — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	UCLAavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$19.41	52% 5778-5367 (11145)
HO HomeRunHazard	UCLAavg 50.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.51	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774c	UCLAavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$13.47	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
VeryLucky888	UCLAavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$230	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	UCLAavg 50¢	$816.05	$824.21	+$8.16	50% 2519-2501 (5020)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 50¢	$50	$49.5	-$0.5	41% 1964-2771 (4735)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UCLAavg 51¢	$39.78	$39.39	-$0.39	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	UCLAavg 51¢	$31.62	$31.62	+$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 3¢	$0.3	$4.63	+$4.33	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

Nooserac

UCLA

Invested

$1,941.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.41

Record

52%

5778-5367 (11145)

HomeRunHazard

UCLA

Invested

$1,523.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.51

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774c

UCLA

Invested

$1,347

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.47

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

VeryLucky888

UCLA

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$230

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

UCLA

Invested

$816.05

Value

$824.21

PnL

+$8.16

Record

50%

2519-2501 (5020)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$50

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

41%

1964-2771 (4735)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UCLA

Invested

$39.78

Value

$39.39

PnL

-$0.39

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

UCLA

Invested

$31.62

Value

$31.62

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$0.3

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$4.33

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.