Spread: UCLA (-21.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (40%) · UCLA at 60¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

UCLA60¢Nevada40¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$6.79

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 59.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA60%

Nevada41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA2 traders

Total Value$858.03

Total Shares1,619

Combined PnL+$0.11

Nevada3 traders

Total Value$558.13

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL-$6.9

UCLA — 40%Nevada — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UCLAavg 53¢	$836.19	$836.5	+$0.31	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774cCTR	Nevadaavg 47¢	$314.14	$317.49	+$3.34	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Nevadaavg 49¢	$219.52	$210.56	-$8.96	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 49¢	$31.36	$30.08	-$1.28	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UCLAavg 53¢	$21.73	$21.53	-$0.2	54% 2996-2576 (5572)

HomeRunHazard

UCLA

Invested

$836.19

Value

$836.5

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774cCTR

Nevada

Invested

$314.14

Value

$317.49

PnL

+$3.34

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

SnakeBallCTR

Nevada

Invested

$219.52

Value

$210.56

PnL

-$8.96

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$31.36

Value

$30.08

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UCLA

Invested

$21.73

Value

$21.53

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.