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NevadaNorthern IllinoisNorthern IllinoisNevada
VeryLucky888<$100Nevada
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.
Spread: Nevada (-7.5)
Resolved Nevada. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Northern Illinois 67%
Total Value
$1.3K
Combined PnL
$19.89
Smart Money Signal
Northern Illinois
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada3 traders
Total Value$1.3K
Total Shares1,255
Combined PnL+$715.29
Northern Illinois2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,220
Combined PnL-$695.4
Nevada — 60%Northern Illinois — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Nevadaavg 43¢ | $539.65 | $1.3K | +$715.34 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 57¢ | $669.75 | — | -$669.75 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 57¢ | $25.65 | — | -$25.65 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Nevadaavg 41¢ | $2.05 | — | +$0.1 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
VeryLucky888<$100 | Nevadaavg 44¢ | $2.2 | — | -$0.15 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
LI
LimousinInvested
$539.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$715.34
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$669.75
Value
—
PnL
-$669.75
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$25.65
Value
—
PnL
-$25.65
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x38aff282...72d134
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-7pt5