Spread: Nevada (-6.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Northern Illinois (13%) · Northern Illinois at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Nevada48¢Northern Illinois52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Northern Illinois

Consensus Traders

Northern Illinois 13%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$3.93

Research grade

NeutralNorthern Illinois at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nevada48%

Northern Illinois53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northern Illinois1 trader

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,582

Combined PnL+$42.91

Nevada7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares8,489

Combined PnL-$38.98

Northern Illinois — 13%Nevada — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Northern Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Illinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNevada 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nevada 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Northern Illinoisavg 52¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$42.91	55% 356-295 (651)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Nevadaavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$16.6	57% 3601-2755 (6356)
HI hi774cCTR	Nevadaavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13.95	22% 163-589 (752)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nevadaavg 48¢	$451.68	$446.97	-$4.7	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nevadaavg 48¢	$504.55	$422.1	-$4.92	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Nevadaavg 47¢	$47	$47.5	+$0.5	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 47¢	$23.5	$23.75	+$0.25	55% 256-211 (467)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 48¢	$9.07	$9.51	+$0.44	52% 1608-1475 (3083)

gmpm2

Northern Illinois

Invested

$4,462.42

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$42.91

Record

55%

356-295 (651)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nevada

Invested

$1,792.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$16.6

Record

57%

3601-2755 (6356)

hi774cCTR

Nevada

Invested

$1,339

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$13.95

Record

22%

163-589 (752)

38791873984189CTR

Nevada

Invested

$451.68

Value

$446.97

PnL

-$4.7

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nevada

Invested

$504.55

Value

$422.1

PnL

-$4.92

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$47

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

256-211 (467)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$9.07

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Research grade

NeutralNorthern Illinois at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Northern Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Illinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNevada 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nevada 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northern Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.