Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nevada, while the market favors Northern Illinois (51%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Nevada (-5.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nevada (78%) · Nevada at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Nevada50¢Northern Illinois50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nevada

Consensus Traders

Nevada 78%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$8.6

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 49.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNevada at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nevada

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Illinois 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nevada50%

Northern Illinois51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northern Illinois2 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,812

Combined PnL+$111.35

Nevada7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,190

Combined PnL-$102.75

Northern Illinois — 22%Nevada — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Nevada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Illinois 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNevada 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nevada 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Northern Illinoisavg 49¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$100.93	55% 356-295 (651)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Nevadaavg 51¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$90	50% 3804-3774 (7578)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nevadaavg 50.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$17.67	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Northern Illinoisavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10.41	49% 536-565 (1101)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nevadaavg 49¢	$510.09	$515.3	+$5.21	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
NM NM-PCTR	Nevadaavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Nevadaavg 49.4¢	$151.57	$151.97	+$0.39	48% 286-304 (590)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Nevadaavg 49¢	$100.41	$101.44	+$1.02	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nevadaavg 49¢	$4.94	$4.99	+$0.05	52% 1712-1564 (3276)

gmpm2

Northern Illinois

Invested

$3,297.21

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$100.93

Record

55%

356-295 (651)

6512395314597884CTR

Nevada

Invested

$3,060

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$90

Record

50%

3804-3774 (7578)

38791873984189CTR

Nevada

Invested

$1,144.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.67

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Northern Illinois

Invested

$1,041.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.41

Record

49%

536-565 (1101)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nevada

Invested

$510.09

Value

$515.3

PnL

+$5.21

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

NM-PCTR

Nevada

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Nevada

Invested

$151.57

Value

$151.97

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nevada

Invested

$100.41

Value

$101.44

PnL

+$1.02

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nevada

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

Research grade

NeutralNevada at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nevada

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Illinois 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Nevada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Illinois 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNevada 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nevada 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nevada wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.