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NevadaNorthern IllinoisNevadaNorthern IllinoisNorthern IllinoisNevadaNorthern Illinois
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Nevada — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Nevada
Spread: Nevada (-3.5)
Resolved Nevada. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Nevada. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
Nevada 43%
Total Value
$1.5K
Combined PnL
-$6.36
Smart Money Signal
Nevada
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada3 traders
Total Value$1.5K
Total Shares1,531
Combined PnL+$671.05
Northern Illinois4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,546
Combined PnL-$677.41
Nevada — 43%Northern Illinois — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Nevadaavg 56¢ | $819.28 | $1.5K | +$643.72 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 44¢ | $630.28 | — | -$630.28 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Nevadaavg 60¢ | $34.8 | $58 | +$23.2 | 53% 310-274 (584) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 40.2¢ | $23.2 | — | -$23.2 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 44¢ | $19.8 | — | -$19.8 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Nevadaavg 59¢ | $5.95 | $10.08 | +$4.13 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 40¢ | $4.13 | — | -$4.13 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
HO
HomeRunHazardInvested
$819.28
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$643.72
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$630.28
Value
—
PnL
-$630.28
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
0X
0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100Invested
$34.8
Value
$58
PnL
+$23.2
Record
53%
310-274 (584)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$23.2
Value
—
PnL
-$23.2
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
—
PnL
-$19.8
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$5.95
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$4.13
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$4.13
Value
—
PnL
-$4.13
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb402b0b6...9faa1d
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-3pt5