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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.

Spread: Nevada (-1.5)

Resolved Nevada. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Northern Illinois 63%

Total Value

$185.32

Combined PnL

-$0.1

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nevada100%

Northern Illinois0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nevada4 traders

Total Value$185.32

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$68.57

Northern Illinois5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$68.67

Nevada — 44%Northern Illinois — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Nevadaavg 63¢	$82.06	$130.25	+$48.19	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nevadaavg 63¢	$28.34	$44.99	+$16.65	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nevadaavg 63¢	$6.35	$10.08	+$3.73	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 37¢	$56.11	—	-$56.11	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 37¢	$5.59	—	-$5.59	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 37¢	$5.01	—	-$5.01	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 1¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 37¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Nevadaavg 50¢	$800	—	+$0	68% 136-63 (199)

Invested

$82.06

Value

$130.25

PnL

+$48.19

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Invested

$28.34

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$16.65

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Invested

$6.35

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$3.73

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$56.11

Value

—

PnL

-$56.11

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

VenusianCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$5.59

Value

—

PnL

-$5.59

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LimousinCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$5.01

Value

—

PnL

-$5.01

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$800

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x888ebcf8...4a7a9b

Slug

cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-1pt5

Traders in this Market

38791873984189

Nevada — $130.25

Pan9X

Nevada — $44.99

ghorrock

Nevada — $10.08

LightParadox

Northern Illinois — $0

Venusian

Northern Illinois — $0

Limousin

Northern Illinois — $0

6512395314597884

Northern Illinois — $0

MadridTime

Northern Illinois — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Nevada — $0

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