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NevadaNorthern IllinoisNevadaNevadaNorthern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.
Spread: Nevada (-17.5)
Resolved Nevada. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Northern Illinois 50%
Total Value
$1.9K
Combined PnL
$58.97
Smart Money Signal
Northern Illinois
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada3 traders
Total Value$1.9K
Total Shares1,867
Combined PnL+$1.5K
Northern Illinois3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,791
Combined PnL$-1.4K
Nevada — 50%Northern Illinois — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Nevadaavg 21.3¢ | $309.89 | $1.5K | +$1.1K | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 78.6¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
MA MadridTime | Nevadaavg 22¢ | $60.27 | $273.95 | +$213.68 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
LI Limousin | Nevadaavg 22¢ | $29.68 | $134.91 | +$105.23 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 78.5¢ | $70.65 | — | -$70.65 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 79¢ | $7.96 | — | -$7.96 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
VE
VenusianInvested
$309.89
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$1,329.12
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
MA
MadridTimeInvested
$60.27
Value
$273.95
PnL
+$213.68
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
LI
LimousinInvested
$29.68
Value
$134.91
PnL
+$105.23
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$70.65
Value
—
PnL
-$70.65
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$7.96
Value
—
PnL
-$7.96
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x19297153...8e33fb
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-17pt5