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NevadaNevadaNorthern IllinoisNevadaNorthern IllinoisNevada
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.
Spread: Nevada (-16.5)
Resolved Nevada. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Northern Illinois 40%
Total Value
$1.7K
Combined PnL
$19
Smart Money Signal
Northern Illinois
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada4 traders
Total Value$1.7K
Total Shares1,715
Combined PnL+$1.3K
Northern Illinois2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,690
Combined PnL$-1.3K
Nevada — 67%Northern Illinois — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Nevadaavg 24¢ | $264.26 | $1.1K | +$836.82 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
LI LightParadox | Nevadaavg 25¢ | $83.99 | $335.96 | +$251.97 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 75.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
MA MadridTime | Nevadaavg 24¢ | $66.6 | $277.5 | +$210.9 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 76¢ | $34.2 | — | -$34.2 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Nevadaavg 50¢ | $553 | — | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
VE
VenusianInvested
$264.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$836.82
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
LI
LightParadoxInvested
$83.99
Value
$335.96
PnL
+$251.97
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$1,246.49
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
MA
MadridTimeInvested
$66.6
Value
$277.5
PnL
+$210.9
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$34.2
Value
—
PnL
-$34.2
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$553
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x583746ba...bbaaec
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-16pt5