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NevadaNevadaNorthern IllinoisNorthern IllinoisNevada
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.
Spread: Nevada (-14.5)
Resolved Nevada. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Northern Illinois 50%
Total Value
$222.48
Combined PnL
$19.98
Smart Money Signal
Northern Illinois
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada3 traders
Total Value$222.48
Total Shares222
Combined PnL+$162.41
Northern Illinois2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares195
Combined PnL-$142.43
Nevada — 60%Northern Illinois — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Nevadaavg 27¢ | $41.75 | $154.63 | +$112.88 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Nevadaavg 27¢ | $18.32 | $67.85 | +$49.53 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 73¢ | $109.58 | — | -$109.58 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 73¢ | $32.85 | — | -$32.85 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Nevadaavg 50¢ | $575 | — | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
VE
VenusianInvested
$41.75
Value
$154.63
PnL
+$112.88
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
LI
Limousin<$100Invested
$18.32
Value
$67.85
PnL
+$49.53
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$109.58
Value
—
PnL
-$109.58
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$32.85
Value
—
PnL
-$32.85
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$575
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x231fc052...0ccf42
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-14pt5