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NevadaNevadaNevadaNorthern IllinoisNorthern IllinoisNorthern IllinoisNevada
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Northern Illinois — but Nevada won instead.
Spread: Nevada (-13.5)
Resolved Nevada. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Northern Illinois. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Northern Illinois 50%
Total Value
$3.4K
Combined PnL
$46.48
Smart Money Signal
Northern Illinois
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Nevada100%
Northern Illinois0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Nevada4 traders
Total Value$3.4K
Total Shares3,449
Combined PnL+$2.4K
Northern Illinois3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares3,342
Combined PnL$-2.4K
Nevada — 57%Northern Illinois — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Nevadaavg 30¢ | $528.52 | $1.8K | +$1.2K | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
MA MadridTime | Nevadaavg 30¢ | $264.26 | $880.87 | +$616.61 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
VE Venusian | Nevadaavg 30¢ | $241.97 | $806.56 | +$564.59 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Northern Illinoisavg 70¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.3K | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 70¢ | $94.5 | — | -$88 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 70¢ | $7.06 | — | -$7.06 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Nevadaavg 50¢ | $400 | — | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
LI
LightParadoxInvested
$528.52
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
MA
MadridTimeInvested
$264.26
Value
$880.87
PnL
+$616.61
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
VE
VenusianInvested
$241.97
Value
$806.56
PnL
+$564.59
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$2,272.87
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$94.5
Value
—
PnL
-$88
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$7.06
Value
—
PnL
-$7.06
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$400
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x14211600...6d4c1a
Slug
cfb-nevada-nill-2026-11-14-spread-away-13pt5