Nevada vs. Northern Illinois

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nevada (75%) · Nevada at 68¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Nevada68¢Northern Illinois32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nevada

Consensus Traders

Nevada 75%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$4.34

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 67.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNevada at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nevada

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nevada68%

Northern Illinois33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nevada6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,298

Combined PnL-$57.66

Northern Illinois2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,116

Combined PnL+$62.01

Nevada — 75%Northern Illinois — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Nevada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNevada 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nevada 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Nevadaavg 70¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$29.44	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
PU purplegattoCTR	Northern Illinoisavg 30¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$52.63	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
VeryLucky888	Nevadaavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$19.73	53% 1030-921 (1951)
PL pltrkr111	Nevadaavg 69¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	4% 22-532 (554)
IC ic4cream	Nevadaavg 70¢	$518	$510.6	-$7.4	5% 24-459 (483)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northern Illinoisavg 29.9¢	$255.1	$264.48	+$9.38	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Nevadaavg 70¢	$55.3	$54.51	-$0.79	55% 248-199 (447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nevadaavg 70¢	$21.35	$21.05	-$0.3	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

HomeRunHazard

Nevada

Invested

$2,611

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$29.44

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

purplegattoCTR

Northern Illinois

Invested

$1,578.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$52.63

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

VeryLucky888

Nevada

Invested

$1,413.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$19.73

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

pltrkr111

Nevada

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

22-532 (554)

ic4cream

Nevada

Invested

$518

Value

$510.6

PnL

-$7.4

Record

24-459 (483)

38791873984189CTR

Northern Illinois

Invested

$255.1

Value

$264.48

PnL

+$9.38

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Nevada

Invested

$55.3

Value

$54.51

PnL

-$0.79

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ghorrock<$100

Nevada

Invested

$21.35

Value

$21.05

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNevada at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nevada

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Nevada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNevada 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNevada 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nevada 71% · 7

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nevada wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.