Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 53.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 75¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$590.85

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 74.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,182

Combined PnL-$185.13

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares9,243

Combined PnL-$405.72

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 56¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$175.13	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$329.22	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$54.68	22% 179-619 (798)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$667.05	$539.45	-$110.33	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
AM AmericaFirst1	Underavg 57¢	$171.83	$162.79	-$9.04	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 45.9¢	$77.54	$55.77	-$21.77	54% 286-244 (530)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 55¢	$52.37	$51.42	-$0.95	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$42.57	$45.08	+$2.51	48% 293-321 (614)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$8.43	$6.84	-$1.59	37% 977-1669 (2646)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,919.27

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$175.13

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,190.91

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$329.22

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,203

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$54.68

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$667.05

Value

$539.45

PnL

-$110.33

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

AmericaFirst1

Under

Invested

$171.83

Value

$162.79

PnL

-$9.04

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.54

Value

$55.77

PnL

-$21.77

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$52.37

Value

$51.42

PnL

-$0.95

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.57

Value

$45.08

PnL

+$2.51

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.43

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$1.59

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.