Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Rutgers — but Nebraska won instead.
Spread: Nebraska (-20.5)
Resolved Nebraska. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Rutgers. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Rutgers 33%
1 arb excluded
$7.8K
-$106.78
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KaneAnalyticsCTR | Rutgersavg 53¢ | $3.6K | — | $-3.6K | 52% 208-193 (401) |
 RN1 | Nebraskaavg 47¢ | $3.3K | $6.0K | +$2.7K | 55% 5455-4439 (9894) |
PR primm | Nebraskaavg 43¢ | $457.52 | $1.1K | +$606.48 | 59% 932-653 (1585) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Nebraskaavg 47¢ | $302 | $400 | +$98 | 50% 3807-3776 (7583) |
| └ Nebraska leg | Nebraskaavg 47¢ | $188 | $400 | +$212 | |
| └ Rutgers leg | Rutgersavg 57¢ | $114 | — | -$114 | |
38 38791873984189 | Nebraskaavg 47¢ | $145.7 | $310 | +$164.3 | 48% 3273-3600 (6873) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Nebraskaavg 47.3¢ | $55.16 | $36.28 | +$15.86 | 50% 1601-1625 (3226) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Rutgersavg 53¢ | $3.2 | — | -$3.2 | 47% 540-597 (1137) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Rutgersavg 50¢ | $400 | — | +$0 | 69% 134-60 (194) |
Invested
$3,626.79
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
52%
208-193 (401)
RN1Invested
$3,291.44
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
55%
5455-4439 (9894)
Invested
$457.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$606.48
Record
59%
932-653 (1585)
Invested
$302
Value
$400
PnL
+$98
Record
50%
3807-3776 (7583)
Both legs:
Invested
$145.7
Value
$310
PnL
+$164.3
Record
48%
3273-3600 (6873)
Invested
$55.16
Value
$36.28
PnL
+$15.86
Record
50%
1601-1625 (3226)
Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
47%
540-597 (1137)
Invested
$400
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
134-60 (194)