Spread: Nebraska (-16.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska (33%) · Nebraska at 55¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 14

Nebraska55¢Rutgers45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nebraska

Consensus Traders

Nebraska 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$225.22

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 54.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska55%

Rutgers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nebraska4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,222

Combined PnL+$559.23

Rutgers8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,451

Combined PnL-$334.01

Nebraska — 33%Rutgers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Nebraskaavg 48.4¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$556.38	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rutgersavg 52¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$46.99	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Rutgers leg	Rutgersavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$94.03
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$47.04
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Rutgersavg 51¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$302.77	1% 3-326 (329)
RN1CTR	Rutgersavg 51¢	$786.42	$771	-$15.42	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rutgersavg 51.8¢	$1.1K	$722.22	-$29.07	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
JU justaluckydude	Nebraskaavg 58.5¢	$381.12	$355.07	-$26.05	47% 540-597 (1137)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Rutgersavg 51.5¢	$189.49	$183.99	-$5.5	48% 293-321 (614)
AM AmericaFirst1	Nebraskaavg 49.2¢	$148.02	$163.95	+$15.93	47% 99-111 (210)
65 6512395314597884	Nebraskaavg 49¢	$101.04	$114	+$12.97	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9XCTR	Rutgersavg 46.9¢	$125.37	$112.15	+$6.36	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Rutgersavg 42¢	$84	$100	+$16	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 52¢	$89.44	$86	-$3.44	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 52¢	$6.16	$6	-$0.16	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

primm

Nebraska

Invested

$4,386.36

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$556.38

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$4,779.36

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$46.99

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Rutgers$2,474.4352¢-$94.03

Nebraska$2,304.9249¢+$47.04

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$2,807.51

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$302.77

Record

3-326 (329)

RN1CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$786.42

Value

$771

PnL

-$15.42

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$1,114.48

Value

$722.22

PnL

-$29.07

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

justaluckydude

Nebraska

Invested

$381.12

Value

$355.07

PnL

-$26.05

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$189.49

Value

$183.99

PnL

-$5.5

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

AmericaFirst1

Nebraska

Invested

$148.02

Value

$163.95

PnL

+$15.93

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

6512395314597884

Nebraska

Invested

$101.04

Value

$114

PnL

+$12.97

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9XCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$125.37

Value

$112.15

PnL

+$6.36

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$84

Value

$100

PnL

+$16

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$89.44

Value

$86

PnL

-$3.44

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$6.16

Value

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.