Nebraska vs. Rutgers

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska (67%) · Nebraska at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Nebraska86¢Rutgers14¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nebraska

Consensus Traders

Nebraska 67%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$44.97

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska86%

Rutgers14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nebraska6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,553

Combined PnL+$56.55

Rutgers3 traders

Total Value$395.72

Total Shares2,729

Combined PnL-$11.58

Nebraska — 67%Rutgers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRutgers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nebraska 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Nebraskaavg 84.8¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$37.81	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Rutgersavg 15¢	$286.32	$276.78	-$9.54	1% 3-326 (329)
38 38791873984189	Nebraskaavg 81¢	$411.41	$165.9	+$15.41	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
PA Pan9X	Nebraskaavg 85¢	$127.5	$128.25	+$0.75	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 15¢	$92.02	$88.95	-$3.07	47% 895-994 (1889)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Nebraskaavg 85.7¢	$45.25	$44.88	-$0.37	62% 212-128 (340)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nebraskaavg 83.9¢	$82.13	$38.75	+$2.95	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 14¢	$28.95	$29.99	+$1.03	48% 286-306 (592)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Nebraskaavg 85¢	$14.45	$14.45	+$0	54% 286-244 (530)

HomeRunHazard

Nebraska

Invested

$4,317.07

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$37.81

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$286.32

Value

$276.78

PnL

-$9.54

Record

3-326 (329)

38791873984189

Nebraska

Invested

$411.41

Value

$165.9

PnL

+$15.41

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Pan9X

Nebraska

Invested

$127.5

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$92.02

Value

$88.95

PnL

-$3.07

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

thatsabing0<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$45.25

Value

$44.88

PnL

-$0.37

Record

62%

212-128 (340)

ghorrock<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$82.13

Value

$38.75

PnL

+$2.95

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$28.95

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$1.03

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$14.45

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRutgers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nebraska 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.