Spread: North Dakota State (-8.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawai'i (40%) · Hawai'i at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

North Dakota State44¢Hawai'i56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hawai'i

Consensus Traders

Hawai'i 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$56.62

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 56.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State44%

Hawai'i56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawai'i4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,903

Combined PnL+$53.42

North Dakota State6 traders

Total Value$546.58

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL+$3.2

Hawai'i — 40%North Dakota State — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNorth Dakota State 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Hawai'iavg 52¢	$472.73	$495.45	+$22.73	47% 198-225 (423)
RN1	Hawai'iavg 50¢	$400	$432	+$32	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Hawai'iavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	66% 141-74 (215)
└ Hawai'i leg	Hawai'iavg 50¢	$100	$108	+$8
└ North Dakota State leg	North Dakota Stateavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
nigiri99CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 43¢	$137.6	$147.2	+$9.6	50% 663-658 (1321)
FO Forecastication2CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 46¢	$138.46	$136.96	-$1.5	45% 298-371 (669)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 48¢	$129.93	$124.59	-$5.35	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 46¢	$93.84	$92.82	-$1.02	68% 2661-1247 (3908)
38 38791873984189<$100	Hawai'iavg 53.7¢	$79.73	$82.47	+$2.74	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 44¢	$21.68	$22.67	+$0.99	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 45¢	$21.87	$22.36	+$0.49	44% 227-289 (516)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$25.37	$21.32	-$4.05	50% 1931-1953 (3884)

glennyorkshire

Hawai'i

Invested

$472.73

Value

$495.45

PnL

+$22.73

Record

47%

198-225 (423)

RN1

Hawai'i

Invested

$400

Value

$432

PnL

+$32

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

141-74 (215)

Both legs:

Hawai'i$10050¢+$8

North Dakota State$10050¢-$8

nigiri99CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$137.6

Value

$147.2

PnL

+$9.6

Record

50%

663-658 (1321)

Forecastication2CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$138.46

Value

$136.96

PnL

-$1.5

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$129.93

Value

$124.59

PnL

-$5.35

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

purplegattoCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$93.84

Value

$92.82

PnL

-$1.02

Record

68%

2661-1247 (3908)

38791873984189<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$79.73

Value

$82.47

PnL

+$2.74

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$21.68

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$0.99

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$21.87

Value

$22.36

PnL

+$0.49

Record

44%

227-289 (516)

Pan9X<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$25.37

Value

$21.32

PnL

-$4.05

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNorth Dakota State 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawai'i wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.