Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Notre Dame vs. Navy: O/U 55.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$6.2K
-$341.15
50.8¢ → 47.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50.4¢ | $5.4K | $5.1K | -$311.04 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Overavg 53¢ | $1,000 | $924.53 | -$18.87 | 54% 728-614 (1342) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $119.56 | $115.9 | -$3.66 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $97.84 | $90.25 | -$7.59 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
Invested
$5,378.34
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$311.04
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$924.53
PnL
-$18.87
Record
54%
728-614 (1342)
Invested
$119.56
Value
$115.9
PnL
-$3.66
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$97.84
Value
$90.25
PnL
-$7.59
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.