Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: O/U 53.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 47¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$234.84

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 46.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares13,438

Combined PnL+$434.07

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,884

Combined PnL-$199.22

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$131.07	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$149.13	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
Nooserac	Underavg 48.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$22.81	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$120	47% 73-83 (156)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Underavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$26.6	47% 331-377 (708)
hammyandcheese	Underavg 48¢	$480	$330	-$150	55% 390-318 (708)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Overavg 52¢	$271.83	$271.83	-$0	50% 3874-3834 (7708)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$178.22	$171.07	-$7.15	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$138.67	$132.55	-$6.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.9¢	$39.55	$38.52	-$1.03
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 32.3¢	$107.53	$136.92	+$29.39	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.3¢	$70.1	$100.79	+$30.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.4¢	$37.43	$36.14	-$1.29
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$53.1	$86.29	+$33.19	62% 2190-1327 (3517)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$10.86	$11.04	+$0.18	63% 8135-4874 (13009)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$6.48	$7.16	+$0.67	57% 13827-10598 (24425)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,472.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$131.07

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,406.16

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$149.13

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$2,039.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$22.81

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Over

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$120

Record

47%

73-83 (156)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Under

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.6

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

hammyandcheese

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$330

PnL

-$150

Record

55%

390-318 (708)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Over

Invested

$271.83

Value

$271.83

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$178.22

Value

$171.07

PnL

-$7.15

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

Both legs:

Under$138.6748.6¢-$6.12

Over$39.5554.9¢-$1.03

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$107.53

Value

$136.92

PnL

+$29.39

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Both legs:

Under$70.132.3¢+$30.68

Over$37.4355.4¢-$1.29

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.1

Value

$86.29

PnL

+$33.19

Record

62%

2190-1327 (3517)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$10.86

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$0.18

Record

63%

8135-4874 (13009)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.48

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.67

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.