Notre Dame vs. Navy: O/U 45.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 80¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$6.9K
$1.4K
58.7¢ → 80¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VigorishVault | Overavg 56.6¢ | $2.5K | $3.5K | +$1.0K | — 11-3 (14) |
PR primm | Overavg 61.5¢ | $1.8K | $2.4K | +$546.5 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $234.19 | $520.42 | +$286.23 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 43¢ | $929.19 | $432.18 | -$497.01 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Overavg 58.6¢ | $40.07 | $54.68 | +$14.61 | 62% 2190-1327 (3517) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $50.54 | $42.96 | -$7.57 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
VigorishVaultInvested
$2,500
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
—
11-3 (14)
Invested
$1,815.27
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$546.5
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
NooseracCTRInvested
$234.19
Value
$520.42
PnL
+$286.23
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
RN1CTRInvested
$929.19
Value
$432.18
PnL
-$497.01
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$40.07
Value
$54.68
PnL
+$14.61
Record
62%
2190-1327 (3517)
Invested
$50.54
Value
$42.96
PnL
-$7.57
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.