Spread: Notre Dame (-30.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Navy (57%) · Navy at 60¢ · $67K held · ended Oct 31

Notre Dame41¢Navy59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Navy

Consensus Traders

Navy 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$66.9K

Combined PnL

$9.4K

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 59.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNavy at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Navy

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Notre Dame41%

Navy60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Navy8 traders

Total Value$56.6K

Total Shares95,218

Combined PnL+$10.7K

Notre Dame6 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares22,296

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Navy — 57%Notre Dame — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Navyavg 48¢	$38.4K	$47.6K	+$9.2K	39% 88-138 (226)
PW Pwaddler	Navyavg 47¢	$4.0K	$5.0K	+$1.1K	48% 412-453 (865)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Notre Dameavg 51¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$136.71	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR	Notre Dameavg 53¢	$5.3K	$4.0K	$-1.2K	48% 227-245 (472)
JO jole24	Navyavg 48¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$402.5	44% 1020-1277 (2297)
GM gmpm2	Navyavg 48¢	$969.6	$1.2K	-$10.1	53% 337-299 (636)
RN1CTR	Notre Dameavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$126.9	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Navyavg 52.3¢	$500	$568.99	+$68.99	46% 134-158 (292)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 51.6¢	$138.54	$111.68	-$2.9	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
└ Navy leg	Navyavg 48.7¢	$48.85	$59.64	+$10.96
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 51.6¢	$66.35	$52.05	-$13.87
LE LeLynxMalynx	Navyavg 49¢	$103.88	$101.76	-$1.06	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Notre Dameavg 53¢	$122.96	$93.96	-$29	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
noosh3<$100	Navyavg 49¢	$57.6	$56.42	-$0.59	52% 269-244 (513)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 45.8¢	$55	$48.6	-$6.4	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
GG GGLPL<$100	Navyavg 52¢	$4.16	$4.76	+$0.6	50% 678-674 (1352)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 54¢	$5.4	$4.05	-$1.35	51% 1450-1393 (2843)

EdZachary

Navy

Invested

$38,400

Value

$47.6K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

39%

88-138 (226)

Pwaddler

Navy

Invested

$3,950.06

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

412-453 (865)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$4,648

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$136.71

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$5,299.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

227-245 (472)

jole24

Navy

Invested

$1,680

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$402.5

Record

44%

1020-1277 (2297)

gmpm2

Navy

Invested

$969.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.1

Record

53%

337-299 (636)

RN1CTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$1,269

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$126.9

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Navy

Invested

$500

Value

$568.99

PnL

+$68.99

Record

46%

134-158 (292)

ghorrockARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$138.54

Value

$111.68

PnL

-$2.9

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Both legs:

Navy$48.8548.7¢+$10.96

Notre Dame$66.3551.6¢-$13.87

LeLynxMalynx

Navy

Invested

$103.88

Value

$101.76

PnL

-$1.06

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$122.96

Value

$93.96

PnL

-$29

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

noosh3<$100

Navy

Invested

$57.6

Value

$56.42

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

269-244 (513)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$55

Value

$48.6

PnL

-$6.4

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

GGLPL<$100

Navy

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

678-674 (1352)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

1450-1393 (2843)

Research grade

NeutralNavy at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Navy

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Navy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.