Notre Dame vs. Navy
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (40%) · Notre Dame at 98¢ · $40K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Notre Dame
5
Notre Dame 40%
$40.3K
$53.58
97.5¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNotre Dame at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99 999585 | Notre Dameavg 97.5¢ | $39.5K | $39.5K | +$48.22 | 96% 26-1 (27) |
OL OLOTH | Notre Dameavg 97.4¢ | $664.2 | $665.56 | +$1.71 | 96% 746-31 (777) |
 NooseracCTR<$100 | Navyavg 2.2¢ | $48.41 | $52.81 | +$4.4 | 52% 5775-5365 (11140) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Navyavg 2.5¢ | $26.22 | $25.48 | -$0.74 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Navyavg 2.4¢ | $16.8 | $16.8 | +$0 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
Invested
$39,488.46
Value
$39.5K
PnL
+$48.22
Record
96%
26-1 (27)
Invested
$664.2
Value
$665.56
PnL
+$1.71
Record
96%
746-31 (777)
NooseracCTR<$100Invested
$48.41
Value
$52.81
PnL
+$4.4
Record
52%
5775-5365 (11140)
Invested
$26.22
Value
$25.48
PnL
-$0.74
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.