Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee: O/U 58.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 42¢ · $482 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$482.19
-$22.03
45¢ → 42¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $450 | $417.9 | -$29.9 | 58% 46658-33622 (80280) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $53.55 | $61.61 | +$8.06 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.86 | $2.67 | -$0.19 | 56% 9103-7252 (16355) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.