Spread: Liberty (-21.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Liberty (30%) · Liberty at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Liberty52¢Middle Tennessee48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liberty

Consensus Traders

Liberty 30%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$130.75

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 51.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liberty52%

Middle Tennessee49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liberty3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,669

Combined PnL+$238.49

Middle Tennessee7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,024

Combined PnL-$107.74

Liberty — 30%Middle Tennessee — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiddle Tennessee 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Libertyavg 48¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$230.16	50% 118-116 (234)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 52¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$72	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 51.8¢	$653.26	$624.4	-$28.86	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
BA banepir	Libertyavg 49¢	$163.17	$171.5	+$8.33	57% 16-12 (28)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 51¢	$146.88	$142.56	-$4.32	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 52¢	$94.64	$92.82	-$1.82	48% 301-331 (632)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Libertyavg 48¢	$61.89	$61.89	+$0	61% 1043-661 (1704)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 51¢	$22.95	$22.28	-$0.68	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 51¢	$20.73	$20.73	-$0	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 52¢	$7.33	$7.26	-$0.07	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

justwins

Liberty

Invested

$4,419.16

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$230.16

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$3,791.32

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$72

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$653.26

Value

$624.4

PnL

-$28.86

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

banepir

Liberty

Invested

$163.17

Value

$171.5

PnL

+$8.33

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$146.88

Value

$142.56

PnL

-$4.32

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$94.64

Value

$92.82

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

darkumbreon88<$100

Liberty

Invested

$61.89

Value

$61.89

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1043-661 (1704)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$22.95

Value

$22.28

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$20.73

Value

$20.73

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiddle Tennessee 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liberty wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.