Spread: Michigan (-14.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (70%) · Michigan State at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8

Michigan49¢Michigan State51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan State

Consensus Traders

Michigan State 70%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$230.63

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 51.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michigan49%

Michigan State52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan State7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,828

Combined PnL-$233.11

Michigan3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,490

Combined PnL+$2.48

Michigan State — 70%Michigan — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan State 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Michigan Stateavg 53.4¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$97.19	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Michiganavg 49.7¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	+$0.01	47% 533-610 (1143)
HI hi774c	Michigan Stateavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$48.42	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
PL pltrkr111	Michigan Stateavg 51¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	55% 790-658 (1448)
VeryLucky888	Michigan Stateavg 53.2¢	$2.1K	$512.09	-$90	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Michigan Stateavg 52.7¢	$467.5	$452	+$8.86	49% 797-827 (1624)
38 38791873984189CTR	Michiganavg 48¢	$410.51	$223.18	+$2.47	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
nigiri99CTR	Michiganavg 48.7¢	$219.86	$218.73	+$0	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
NM NM-P	Michigan Stateavg 53¢	$173.84	$167.28	-$4.92	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GH ghorrock<$100	Michigan Stateavg 55¢	$17.53	$16.25	-$1.43	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

HomeRunHazard

Michigan State

Invested

$3,442.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$97.19

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Michigan

Invested

$3,275.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

hi774c

Michigan State

Invested

$1,710.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$48.42

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

pltrkr111

Michigan State

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

VeryLucky888

Michigan State

Invested

$2,132.08

Value

$512.09

PnL

-$90

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Michigan State

Invested

$467.5

Value

$452

PnL

+$8.86

Record

49%

797-827 (1624)

38791873984189CTR

Michigan

Invested

$410.51

Value

$223.18

PnL

+$2.47

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

nigiri99CTR

Michigan

Invested

$219.86

Value

$218.73

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

NM-P

Michigan State

Invested

$173.84

Value

$167.28

PnL

-$4.92

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

ghorrock<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$17.53

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$1.43

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan State 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.