Mississippi State vs. Texas: O/U 49.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 82¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 31

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 82¢

+75% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares46,732

Combined PnL-$132.26

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,128

Combined PnL-$869.22

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Underavg 47¢	$11.6K	$11.5K	-$123.92	59% 2643-1854 (4497)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$62.48	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
Nooserac	Underavg 44.7¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$88.05	52% 5791-5380 (11171)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$871.08	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 47.7¢	$859.7	$828.58	-$31.13	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
BA banepir	Underavg 47¢	$705	$697.5	-$7.5	49% 449-467 (916)
HI hi774c	Underavg 47¢	$360.04	$352.38	-$7.66	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 50.8¢	$123.7	$130.52	+$6.82	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 48¢	$108.96	$105.56	-$3.4	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$95.05	$104.86	+$9.81	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.9¢	$38.05	$58.86	+$20.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$57	$46	-$11
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 46¢	$55.2	$61.53	+$8.98	50% 7925-7961 (15886)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$36.68	$37.8	+$1.12	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 22.4¢	$4.09	$4.82	+$0.74	57% 13944-10725 (24669)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$11,648.95

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$123.92

Record

59%

2643-1854 (4497)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,873

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$62.48

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$2,146.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$88.05

Record

52%

5791-5380 (11171)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,941.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$871.08

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$859.7

Value

$828.58

PnL

-$31.13

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

banepir

Under

Invested

$705

Value

$697.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

449-467 (916)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$360.04

Value

$352.38

PnL

-$7.66

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$123.7

Value

$130.52

PnL

+$6.82

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$108.96

Value

$105.56

PnL

-$3.4

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$95.05

Value

$104.86

PnL

+$9.81

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

Both legs:

Under$38.0534.9¢+$20.81

Over$5757¢-$11

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$55.2

Value

$61.53

PnL

+$8.98

Record

50%

7925-7961 (15886)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.68

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.74

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.