Mississippi State vs. Texas
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (80%) · Texas at 91¢ · $431 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Texas
5
Texas 80%
$430.78
$4.09
90.1¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Texasavg 90¢ | $285.48 | $288.65 | +$3.17 | 74% 6670-2388 (9058) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Texasavg 90¢ | $82.8 | $83.72 | +$0.92 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Texasavg 91¢ | $43.86 | $43.86 | +$0 | 54% 17178-14402 (31580) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Texasavg 91¢ | $13.65 | $13.65 | +$0 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Mississippi Stateavg 9¢ | $0.9 | $0.9 | -$0 | 52% 4731-4449 (9180) |
Invested
$285.48
Value
$288.65
PnL
+$3.17
Record
74%
6670-2388 (9058)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$82.8
Value
$83.72
PnL
+$0.92
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$43.86
Value
$43.86
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
17178-14402 (31580)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
4731-4449 (9180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.