Memphis vs. South Florida: O/U 51.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 52¢ · $971 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$970.93
$14.58
52.5¢ → 51.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 45.3¢ | $379.08 | $396.91 | +$17.83 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 54¢ | $250.02 | $245.39 | -$4.63 | 70% 1697-734 (2431) |
NM NM-P | Underavg 51¢ | $135.33 | $136.65 | +$1.33 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $89.25 | $90.13 | +$0.88 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $63.45 | $62.78 | -$0.67 | 52% 388-362 (750) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $20.68 | $20.46 | -$0.22 | 39% 110-171 (281) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $12.14 | $12.01 | -$0.13 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $4.53 | $4.73 | +$0.2 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.87 | $1.87 | -$0 | 48% 2366-2611 (4977) |
Invested
$379.08
Value
$396.91
PnL
+$17.83
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$250.02
Value
$245.39
PnL
-$4.63
Record
70%
1697-734 (2431)
Invested
$135.33
Value
$136.65
PnL
+$1.33
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$89.25
Value
$90.13
PnL
+$0.88
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$63.45
Value
$62.78
PnL
-$0.67
Record
52%
388-362 (750)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$20.46
PnL
-$0.22
Record
39%
110-171 (281)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$12.14
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$0.13
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.87
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2366-2611 (4977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.