Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Memphis vs. South Florida: O/U 49.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 48¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 13%
$9.0K
-$7.19
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$48.77 | 10% 6-55 (61) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$23.57 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 52¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$9.62 | 19% 121-526 (647) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52¢ | $520 | $525 | +$5 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 52¢ | $238.63 | $240.92 | +$2.29 | 46% 420-485 (905) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $64.48 | $65.1 | +$0.62 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
PL pltrkr111<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $49.61 | $50.09 | +$0.48 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $49.52 | $49.52 | +$0 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
Invested
$4,681.72
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$48.77
Record
10%
6-55 (61)
Invested
$2,451.36
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$23.57
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.62
Record
19%
121-526 (647)
VeryLucky888Invested
$520
Value
$525
PnL
+$5
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$238.63
Value
$240.92
PnL
+$2.29
Record
46%
420-485 (905)
Invested
$64.48
Value
$65.1
PnL
+$0.62
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$50.09
PnL
+$0.48
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
Invested
$49.52
Value
$49.52
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.