Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Memphis, while the market favors South Florida (53%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Memphis (-5.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (22%) · Memphis at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13

Memphis48¢South Florida52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Memphis

Consensus Traders

Memphis 22%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$23.33

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors South Florida 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Memphis48%

South Florida53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,794

Combined PnL+$46.47

South Florida7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,881

Combined PnL-$23.14

Memphis — 22%South Florida — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZacharyCTR	Memphisavg 47¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$36.47	5% 6-120 (126)
HO HomeRunHazard	South Floridaavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$22.58	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
38 38791873984189	South Floridaavg 53¢	$530	$530	-$0	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
VeryLucky888	South Floridaavg 53¢	$530	$530	-$0	52% 813-742 (1555)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Memphisavg 45¢	$225	$235	+$10	34% 592-1164 (1756)
FE ferdinand2<$100	South Floridaavg 53¢	$38.69	$38.33	-$0.36	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	South Floridaavg 53¢	$23.32	$23.32	+$0	42% 97-133 (230)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	South Floridaavg 53¢	$20.14	$19.95	-$0.19	39% 109-169 (278)
GH ghorrock<$100	South Floridaavg 53¢	$5.34	$5.34	+$0	54% 1032-892 (1924)

EdZacharyCTR

Memphis

Invested

$3,428.14

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$36.47

Record

6-120 (126)

HomeRunHazard

South Florida

Invested

$2,498.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$22.58

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

38791873984189

South Florida

Invested

$530

Value

$530

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

VeryLucky888

South Florida

Invested

$530

Value

$530

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

813-742 (1555)

MadridTimeCTR

Memphis

Invested

$225

Value

$235

PnL

+$10

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ferdinand2<$100

South Florida

Invested

$38.69

Value

$38.33

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

South Florida

Invested

$23.32

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

NatoAlfista<$100

South Florida

Invested

$20.14

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$0.19

Record

39%

109-169 (278)

ghorrock<$100

South Florida

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors South Florida 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.