Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Memphis, while the market favors South Florida (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Memphis (-4.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (29%) · Memphis at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Memphis
7
Memphis 29%
$9.4K
-$11.29
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMemphis at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors South Florida 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EdZacharyCTR | Memphisavg 49¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$50 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
 nigiri99 | South Floridaavg 51¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$37.51 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
 VeryLucky888 | South Floridaavg 51¢ | $510 | $510 | +$0 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Memphisavg 48¢ | $38.38 | $38.78 | +$0.4 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | South Floridaavg 49.8¢ | $13.01 | $13.44 | +$0.43 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | South Floridaavg 51¢ | $11.73 | $11.73 | +$0 | 40% 80-118 (198) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | South Floridaavg 48¢ | $6.12 | $6.5 | +$0.38 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$4,899.99
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
nigiri99Invested
$3,891.43
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$37.51
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
VeryLucky888Invested
$510
Value
$510
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$38.38
Value
$38.78
PnL
+$0.4
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$13.01
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
80-118 (198)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.38
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.