Spread: Memphis (-3.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (36%) · Memphis at 54¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 13

Memphis54¢South Florida46¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Memphis

Consensus Traders

Memphis 36%

Total Value

$24.3K

Combined PnL

$21.08

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Memphis54%

South Florida47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis4 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares24,863

Combined PnL+$141.59

South Florida7 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares23,710

Combined PnL-$120.52

Memphis — 36%South Florida — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Memphisavg 53¢	$12.7K	$12.8K	+$119.44	5% 6-120 (126)
HI hi774cCTR	South Floridaavg 47¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$106.38	19% 126-532 (658)
VeryLucky888CTR	South Floridaavg 47¢	$483.43	$474.62	-$4.63	52% 773-714 (1487)
38 38791873984189CTR	South Floridaavg 47¢	$475.54	$470.37	-$5.17	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
nigiri99	Memphisavg 51.1¢	$444.4	$465.45	+$21.05	52% 352-329 (681)
SN SnakeBallCTR	South Floridaavg 49.1¢	$100.19	$96.95	-$3.24	46% 440-515 (955)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	South Floridaavg 47¢	$69.56	$68.82	-$0.74	40% 78-117 (195)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Memphisavg 51¢	$51	$52	+$1	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 47¢	$21.15	$20.93	-$0.22	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 47.3¢	$7.16	$7.03	-$0.13	54% 994-856 (1850)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Memphisavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.6	+$0.1	44% 165-210 (375)

EdZachary

Memphis

Invested

$12,660.72

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$119.44

Record

6-120 (126)

hi774cCTR

South Florida

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$106.38

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$483.43

Value

$474.62

PnL

-$4.63

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

38791873984189CTR

South Florida

Invested

$475.54

Value

$470.37

PnL

-$5.17

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

nigiri99

Memphis

Invested

$444.4

Value

$465.45

PnL

+$21.05

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

SnakeBallCTR

South Florida

Invested

$100.19

Value

$96.95

PnL

-$3.24

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$69.56

Value

$68.82

PnL

-$0.74

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Memphis

Invested

$51

Value

$52

PnL

+$1

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

Pan9XCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$21.15

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ghorrockCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Forecastication2<$100

Memphis

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.