Spread: Memphis (-2.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (18%) · Memphis at 61¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 13

Memphis61¢South Florida39¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Memphis

Consensus Traders

Memphis 18%

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

-$250.19

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Memphis61%

South Florida40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis2 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares26,532

Combined PnL-$249.8

South Florida9 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares24,977

Combined PnL-$0.39

Memphis — 18%South Florida — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Memphisavg 61¢	$15.6K	$15.3K	-$254.97	11% 7-55 (62)
HI hi774cCTR	South Floridaavg 39¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$0	19% 126-532 (658)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	South Floridaavg 39¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0.39	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
EdZachary	Memphisavg 60¢	$621	$626.17	+$5.17	5% 6-120 (126)
38 38791873984189CTR	South Floridaavg 39¢	$589.09	$589.09	+$0	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
VeryLucky888CTR	South Floridaavg 39¢	$390	$390	+$0	52% 784-728 (1512)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	South Floridaavg 39¢	$157.95	$157.95	+$0	48% 21-23 (44)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	South Floridaavg 39¢	$69.81	$69.81	+$0	40% 80-118 (198)
tradecraftCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 39¢	$19.5	$19.5	+$0	22% 178-642 (820)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 39¢	$17.55	$17.55	+$0	49% 1083-1137 (2220)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 39¢	$3.93	$3.93	+$0	54% 997-856 (1853)

lightotunnel35

Memphis

Invested

$15,553.29

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$254.97

Record

11%

7-55 (62)

hi774cCTR

South Florida

Invested

$6,569.01

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

HomeRunHazardCTR

South Florida

Invested

$1,924.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0.39

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

EdZachary

Memphis

Invested

$621

Value

$626.17

PnL

+$5.17

Record

6-120 (126)

38791873984189CTR

South Florida

Invested

$589.09

Value

$589.09

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$390

Value

$390

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

South Florida

Invested

$157.95

Value

$157.95

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$69.81

Value

$69.81

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

tradecraftCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

178-642 (820)

Pan9XCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$17.55

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

ghorrockCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.