Morgan State vs. Delaware State: O/U 51.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 55¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 25%
$13.3K
-$142.62
53.6¢ → 55¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Overavg 53.6¢ | $7.2K | $7.5K | +$233.17 | 48% 166-180 (346) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$54.03 | 46% 8764-10458 (19222) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$216.37 | 48% 62379-67237 (129616) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $665.06 | $601.04 | -$64.01 | 47% 7499-8311 (15810) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Underavg 46.4¢ | $547.28 | $524.81 | -$22.47 | 51% 5010-4880 (9890) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 46.7¢ | $218.27 | $200.78 | -$17.49 | 54% 540-457 (997) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.7¢ | $19.46 | $18.29 | -$1.17 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $13.75 | $13.5 | -$0.25 | 50% 8429-8472 (16901) |
Invested
$7,233.1
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$233.17
Record
48%
166-180 (346)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,493.93
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$54.03
Record
46%
8764-10458 (19222)
Invested
$2,307.96
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$216.37
Record
48%
62379-67237 (129616)
Invested
$665.06
Value
$601.04
PnL
-$64.01
Record
47%
7499-8311 (15810)
Invested
$547.28
Value
$524.81
PnL
-$22.47
Record
51%
5010-4880 (9890)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$218.27
Value
$200.78
PnL
-$17.49
Record
54%
540-457 (997)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$18.29
PnL
-$1.17
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
8429-8472 (16901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.