Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Eastern Washington — but Montana won instead.
Montana vs. Eastern Washington
Resolved Montana. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Eastern Washington. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Eastern Washington 60%
$141.26
-$724.85
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986CTR | Eastern Washingtonavg 16.3¢ | $4.6K | — | -$748.64 | 50% 157-158 (315) |
TO topdogbigboi | Montanaavg 82.7¢ | $92.55 | $111 | +$18.45 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
KE Kev69<$100 | Montanaavg 76¢ | $23 | $30.26 | +$7.26 | 54% 579-490 (1069) |
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100 | Eastern Washingtonavg 14¢ | $5.8 | — | -$0.81 | 56% 553-429 (982) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Eastern Washingtonavg 22¢ | $5 | — | -$1.1 | 53% 438-392 (830) |
 RN1<$100 | Montanaavg 83¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Montanaavg 77¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Eastern Washingtonavg 15¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7925-7961 (15886) |
Invested
$4,587.8
Value
—
PnL
-$748.64
Record
50%
157-158 (315)
Invested
$92.55
Value
$111
PnL
+$18.45
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Invested
$23
Value
$30.26
PnL
+$7.26
Record
54%
579-490 (1069)
Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$0.81
Record
56%
553-429 (982)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
53%
438-392 (830)
RN1<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7925-7961 (15886)
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