Montana State vs. Northern Colorado

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Montana State (25%) · Montana State at 90¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Montana State90¢Northern Colorado10¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Montana State

Consensus Traders

Montana State 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$142.84

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 89.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMontana State at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montana State

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Montana State90%

Northern Colorado11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montana State3 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares10,431

Combined PnL-$190.94

Northern Colorado9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares8,009

Combined PnL+$48.1

Montana State — 25%Northern Colorado — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Montana State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontana State 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Montana State 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scootergene	Montana Stateavg 87.9¢	$9.1K	$8.9K	-$190.94	10% 15-139 (154)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Northern Coloradoavg 12.1¢	$562.06	$577.21	+$15.15	50% 3904-3895 (7799)
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 12.5¢	$328.71	$342.81	+$14.1	39% 68-106 (174)
└ Northern Colorado leg	Northern Coloradoavg 12.5¢	$250.38	$270.73	+$20.35
└ Montana State leg	Montana Stateavg 94¢	$78.33	$72.08	-$6.25
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Northern Coloradoavg 12.5¢	$115.75	$116	+$0.25	49% 564-591 (1155)
FO Forecastication2	Montana Stateavg 94¢	$104.34	$104.34	+$0	45% 281-347 (628)
RN1CTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 12¢	$94.56	$98.5	+$3.94	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 11.8¢	$59.19	$70.45	+$11.26	48% 304-328 (632)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 11¢	$52.29	$66.55	+$14.26	55% 770-626 (1396)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 12¢	$61.32	$63.88	+$2.55	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 12.4¢	$43.36	$43.85	+$0.5	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Montana Stateavg 94¢	$4.74	$4.74	+$0	11% 18-152 (170)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 13¢	$0.87	$0.93	+$0.07	38% 1276-2064 (3340)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Northern Coloradoavg 6¢	$0.19	$0.32	+$0.13	53% 2030-1802 (3832)

scootergene

Montana State

Invested

$9,061.84

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$190.94

Record

10%

15-139 (154)

6512395314597884CTR

Northern Colorado

Invested

$562.06

Value

$577.21

PnL

+$15.15

Record

50%

3904-3895 (7799)

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$328.71

Value

$342.81

PnL

+$14.1

Record

39%

68-106 (174)

Both legs:

Northern Colorado$250.3812.5¢+$20.35

Montana State$78.3394¢-$6.25

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Northern Colorado

Invested

$115.75

Value

$116

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

564-591 (1155)

Forecastication2

Montana State

Invested

$104.34

Value

$104.34

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

281-347 (628)

RN1CTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$94.56

Value

$98.5

PnL

+$3.94

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$59.19

Value

$70.45

PnL

+$11.26

Record

48%

304-328 (632)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$52.29

Value

$66.55

PnL

+$14.26

Record

55%

770-626 (1396)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$61.32

Value

$63.88

PnL

+$2.55

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$43.36

Value

$43.85

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Montana State

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0

Record

11%

18-152 (170)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

38%

1276-2064 (3340)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Northern Colorado

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

Research grade

NeutralMontana State at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Montana State

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Montana State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontana State 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Montana State 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montana State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.