Missouri vs. Arkansas: O/U 47.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 55¢ · $28K held · ended Oct 31

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$523.46

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 55¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares53,958

Combined PnL+$513.33

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,361

Combined PnL+$10.13

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 46¢	$11.5K	$11.6K	+$125	52% 5791-5380 (11171)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 46.7¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	-$38.32	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
PR primm	Underavg 53.6¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$102	46% 1085-1274 (2359)
JO jole24	Underavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15	44% 1025-1280 (2305)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46¢	$920	$1.2K	+$310	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 49¢	$999.6	$1.0K	+$10.2	51% 701-671 (1372)
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 44¢	$999.68	$999.68	+$0	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 46.6¢	$235.69	$235.18	-$0.51	54% 3023-2604 (5627)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$162.96	$163.51	+$0.55	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$114.68	$116.97	+$2.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$48.28	$46.55	-$1.73
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$22.14	$21.94	-$0.2	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 46¢	$14.72	$14.88	+$0.16	49% 12788-13237 (26025)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$3.75	$3.88	+$0.13	48% 8249-8767 (17016)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$11,500

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$125

Record

52%

5791-5380 (11171)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,923.46

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$38.32

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,312.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$102

Record

46%

1085-1274 (2359)

jole24

Under

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15

Record

44%

1025-1280 (2305)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$920

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$310

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

gagarin59CTR

Over

Invested

$999.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.2

Record

51%

701-671 (1372)

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$999.68

Value

$999.68

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$235.69

Value

$235.18

PnL

-$0.51

Record

54%

3023-2604 (5627)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$162.96

Value

$163.51

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Under$114.6845.6¢+$2.29

Over$48.2855.5¢-$1.73

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.14

Value

$21.94

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$14.72

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

12788-13237 (26025)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.