Spread: Missouri (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas (60%) · Arkansas at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Arkansas
5
Arkansas 60%
$1.3K
$9.41
52¢ → 52¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralArkansas at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Arkansasavg 52¢ | $450.14 | $458.8 | +$8.66 | 49% 772-795 (1567) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Missouriavg 47.9¢ | $442.1 | $442.86 | +$0.76 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 VeryLucky888 | Arkansasavg 52¢ | $398.84 | $406.51 | +$0 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Arkansasavg 52¢ | $13 | $13.25 | +$0 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Missouriavg 48¢ | $8.96 | $8.96 | +$0 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$450.14
Value
$458.8
PnL
+$8.66
Record
49%
772-795 (1567)
Invested
$442.1
Value
$442.86
PnL
+$0.76
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
VeryLucky888Invested
$398.84
Value
$406.51
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$13
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.