Spread: Ole Miss (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (83%) · Oklahoma at 53¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Oklahoma
6
Oklahoma 83%
$5.2K
$1.12
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOklahoma at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Oklahomaavg 52¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$0 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
PL pltrkr111 | Oklahomaavg 52¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
38 38791873984189 | Oklahomaavg 51.9¢ | $281.38 | $281.97 | +$0.59 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Oklahomaavg 52¢ | $98.8 | $98.8 | +$0 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Oklahomaavg 52¢ | $23.26 | $23.26 | +$0 | 66% 1711-871 (2582) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Ole Missavg 46.5¢ | $19.35 | $19.89 | +$0.54 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
Invested
$3,742.28
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
Invested
$281.38
Value
$281.97
PnL
+$0.59
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$98.8
Value
$98.8
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$23.26
Value
$23.26
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
1711-871 (2582)
Invested
$19.35
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0.54
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.