Spread: Penn State (-20.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Penn State (67%) · Penn State at 80¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Penn State80¢Minnesota20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penn State

Consensus Traders

Penn State 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$307.42

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 79.7¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penn State80%

Minnesota20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn State6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,202

Combined PnL+$999.02

Minnesota3 traders

Total Value$532.07

Total Shares3,187

Combined PnL-$691.6

Penn State — 67%Minnesota — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Penn Stateavg 94.4¢	$944	$965	+$21	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadox	Penn Stateavg 28¢	$264.26	$854.45	+$590.19	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTime	Penn Stateavg 27.1¢	$180.8	$604.72	+$423.92	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TimeTravelerCTR	Minnesotaavg 6.8¢	$152.69	$460.02	+$307.33	21% 22-81 (103)
dips.	Penn Stateavg 97¢	$335.55	$278.13	-$57.42	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
PA Pan9X	Penn Stateavg 83.7¢	$206.79	$224.99	+$18.21	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
38 38791873984189CTR	Minnesotaavg 72.4¢	$1.7K	$60.57	-$918.67	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 71.9¢	$91.74	$11.48	-$80.26	61% 1067-670 (1737)
VE Venusian<$100	Penn Stateavg 28¢	$1.4	$4.53	+$3.13	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

RN1

Penn State

Invested

$944

Value

$965

PnL

+$21

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadox

Penn State

Invested

$264.26

Value

$854.45

PnL

+$590.19

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTime

Penn State

Invested

$180.8

Value

$604.72

PnL

+$423.92

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

TimeTravelerCTR

Minnesota

Invested

$152.69

Value

$460.02

PnL

+$307.33

Record

21%

22-81 (103)

dips.

Penn State

Invested

$335.55

Value

$278.13

PnL

-$57.42

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Pan9X

Penn State

Invested

$206.79

Value

$224.99

PnL

+$18.21

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

38791873984189CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$1,700.53

Value

$60.57

PnL

-$918.67

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$91.74

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$80.26

Record

61%

1067-670 (1737)

Venusian<$100

Penn State

Invested

$1.4

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$3.13

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.4%

79.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.