Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Minnesota, while the market favors Penn State (91%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Penn State (-13.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Minnesota (70%) · Minnesota at 9.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Penn State91¢Minnesota9¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Minnesota

Consensus Traders

Minnesota 70%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$376.24

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 9¢

-83% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMinnesota at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penn State91%

Minnesota9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn State3 traders

Total Value$804.81

Total Shares947

Combined PnL+$355.6

Minnesota7 traders

Total Value$971.18

Total Shares1,807

Combined PnL+$20.64

Penn State — 30%Minnesota — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Penn Stateavg 48¢	$392.64	$744.38	+$351.74	52% 602-565 (1167)
RN1CTR	Minnesotaavg 51¢	$392.7	$396.55	+$3.85	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Minnesotaavg 52¢	$194.55	$198.2	+$3.65	47% 339-375 (714)
VeryLucky888CTR	Minnesotaavg 52¢	$175.42	$178.79	+$3.37	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
38 38791873984189CTR	Minnesotaavg 51¢	$113.11	$104.19	+$6.62	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 51.3¢	$76.95	$79.5	+$2.55	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
LI Limousin<$100	Penn Stateavg 44¢	$47.78	$51.03	+$3.26	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
LI LightParadox<$100	Penn Stateavg 44¢	$8.8	$9.4	+$0.6	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 56¢	$7.98	$8.58	+$0.6	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 53¢	$5.36	$5.36	+$0	46% 526-624 (1150)

nigiri99

Penn State

Invested

$392.64

Value

$744.38

PnL

+$351.74

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

RN1CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$392.7

Value

$396.55

PnL

+$3.85

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$194.55

Value

$198.2

PnL

+$3.65

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

VeryLucky888CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$175.42

Value

$178.79

PnL

+$3.37

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

38791873984189CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$113.11

Value

$104.19

PnL

+$6.62

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$76.95

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$2.55

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Limousin<$100

Penn State

Invested

$47.78

Value

$51.03

PnL

+$3.26

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

LightParadox<$100

Penn State

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

Research grade

AvoidMinnesota at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Minnesota wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.