Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Minnesota, while the market favors Penn State (81%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Minnesota vs. Penn State

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Minnesota (78%) · Minnesota at 20¢ · $751 held · ends Nov 15

Minnesota20¢Penn State80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Minnesota

Consensus Traders

Minnesota 78%

Total Value

$750.81

Combined PnL

-$22.22

Smart Money Entry

22.6¢ → 19.5¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMinnesota at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Minnesota20%

Penn State81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Minnesota7 traders

Total Value$550.13

Total Shares2,171

Combined PnL-$24.82

Penn State2 traders

Total Value$200.68

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$2.6

Minnesota — 78%Penn State — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Minnesota. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenn State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Minnesota 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Minnesotaavg 50¢	$172	$170.28	-$1.72	68% 136-63 (199)
38 38791873984189CTR	Minnesotaavg 21.5¢	$173.4	$153.04	-$20.35	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Penn Stateavg 80¢	$148.68	$148.68	+$0	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 19¢	$95	$95	+$0	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 20¢	$80	$76	-$4	— 1-4 (5)
HI hi774c<$100	Penn Stateavg 76¢	$49.4	$52	+$2.6	23% 187-633 (820)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 19¢	$48.45	$48.45	+$0	39% 419-652 (1071)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 20.1¢	$74.31	$7.14	+$1.26	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 20¢	$0.23	$0.22	-$0.01	56% 3718-2886 (6604)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Minnesota

Invested

$172

Value

$170.28

PnL

-$1.72

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

38791873984189CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$173.4

Value

$153.04

PnL

-$20.35

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Penn State

Invested

$148.68

Value

$148.68

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

NM-PCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$95

Value

$95

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

crckrCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$80

Value

$76

PnL

-$4

Record

—

1-4 (5)

hi774c<$100

Penn State

Invested

$49.4

Value

$52

PnL

+$2.6

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

GC-PCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$48.45

Value

$48.45

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$74.31

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1.26

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Research grade

AvoidMinnesota at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Minnesota. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenn State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Minnesota 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Minnesota wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.