Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Minnesota vs. Indiana: O/U 43.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 27¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.1K
$556.92
38¢ → 27¢
-29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $1,000 | $1.5K | +$513.16 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53.4¢ | $431.38 | $460.62 | +$29.24 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 38.9¢ | $52.7 | $65.07 | +$12.37 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $43.43 | $46.71 | +$2.87 | 68% 1668-770 (2438) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $34.2 | $34.2 | +$0 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $14.46 | $16.12 | -$0.71 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$513.16
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
VeryLucky888Invested
$431.38
Value
$460.62
PnL
+$29.24
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$52.7
Value
$65.07
PnL
+$12.37
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$43.43
Value
$46.71
PnL
+$2.87
Record
68%
1668-770 (2438)
Invested
$34.2
Value
$34.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$14.46
Value
$16.12
PnL
-$0.71
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.