Minnesota vs. Indiana: O/U 41.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 70¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 69.5¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares13,524

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,323

Combined PnL-$293.69

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$461.58	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$72.74	48% 412-453 (865)
0xheavy888	Underavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$318.74	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	$-2.2K	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52.3¢	$850.01	$950.01	+$100	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 52¢	$255.45	$252.99	-$2.46	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 60.2¢	$232.88	$216.83	-$16.06	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.2¢	$119.92	$121.47	+$1.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$112.97	$95.36	-$17.61
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 58¢	$47.34	$46.7	-$1.19	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$44.74	$42.61	-$2.13	62% 2190-1327 (3517)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$12.96	$14.4	+$1.44	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,230.69

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$461.58

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$2,570.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$72.74

Record

48%

412-453 (865)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$2,549.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$318.74

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$4,095.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$850.01

Value

$950.01

PnL

+$100

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$255.45

Value

$252.99

PnL

-$2.46

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$232.88

Value

$216.83

PnL

-$16.06

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Both legs:

Under$119.9260.2¢+$1.55

Over$112.9746.2¢-$17.61

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$47.34

Value

$46.7

PnL

-$1.19

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.74

Value

$42.61

PnL

-$2.13

Record

62%

2190-1327 (3517)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$12.96

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$1.44

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.