Spread: Indiana (-7.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Minnesota (71%) · Minnesota at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Minnesota
7
Minnesota 71%
$2.8K
$-2.9K
60.3¢ → 95.5¢
+58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMinnesota at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Indianaavg 41¢ | $1.3K | $899.39 | -$350.61 | 47% 331-377 (708) |
 RN1 | Minnesotaavg 59¢ | $2.0K | $809.04 | $-1.2K | 54% 56713-48922 (105635) |
 Nooserac | Minnesotaavg 61¢ | $2.0K | $687.52 | $-1.4K | 52% 5778-5368 (11146) |
JU justaluckydude | Minnesotaavg 69.1¢ | $304.93 | $337.37 | +$32.44 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Minnesotaavg 22¢ | $12.21 | $11.38 | -$0.83 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Indianaavg 19¢ | $4.94 | $6.63 | +$1.69 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
US User7429<$100 | Minnesotaavg 77¢ | $0.77 | $0.85 | +$0.07 | 55% 8318-6708 (15026) |
Invested
$1,250
Value
$899.39
PnL
-$350.61
Record
47%
331-377 (708)
RN1Invested
$2,017.29
Value
$809.04
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
54%
56713-48922 (105635)
NooseracInvested
$2,045.79
Value
$687.52
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
52%
5778-5368 (11146)
Invested
$304.93
Value
$337.37
PnL
+$32.44
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$11.38
PnL
-$0.83
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$6.63
PnL
+$1.69
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
8318-6708 (15026)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.