Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Indiana, while the market favors Minnesota (95%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Indiana (-21.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (78%) · Indiana at 5.5¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Indiana6¢Minnesota94¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Indiana

Consensus Traders

Indiana 78%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 5.5¢

-87% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidIndiana at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Minnesota 95%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana6%

Minnesota95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares16,518

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Minnesota2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL-$270.26

Indiana — 78%Minnesota — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Indianaavg 45¢	$5.8K	$4.5K	$-1.4K	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
PR primm	Minnesotaavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$277.7	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
GA gagarin59CTR	Indianaavg 36¢	$999.72	$958.06	-$41.66	51% 699-666 (1365)
VeryLucky888CTR	Indianaavg 44¢	$440	$149.29	+$10	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Indianaavg 45¢	$154.35	$118.34	-$36.02	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Minnesotaavg 56¢	$41.34	$66.16	+$7.44	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Indianaavg 35¢	$20.32	$29.9	+$9.58	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Indianaavg 45¢	$28.95	$28.95	+$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Indianaavg 45¢	$6.75	$6.75	+$0	50% 33488-33047 (66535)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Indiana

Invested

$5,828.83

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

primm

Minnesota

Invested

$1,777.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$277.7

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

gagarin59CTR

Indiana

Invested

$999.72

Value

$958.06

PnL

-$41.66

Record

51%

699-666 (1365)

VeryLucky888CTR

Indiana

Invested

$440

Value

$149.29

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Indiana

Invested

$154.35

Value

$118.34

PnL

-$36.02

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

topdogbigboi<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$41.34

Value

$66.16

PnL

+$7.44

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$20.32

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$9.58

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$28.95

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Research grade

AvoidIndiana at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Minnesota 95%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.